📊Strategy Developer
Basic:
The Strategy Developer tool provides users with the ability to backtest thousands of different combinations of entries and exits to devise a strategic system which works best for their needs. The user-defined entry and exit conditions consist of signals given by our Market Segment Shifts & High Risk Zones + Added Risk Signals models. With 9 key metrics provided, the user can evaluate the effectiveness of the system they are testing based on profitability, risk, and more. Once a strategy has been found, easily track and forward test it with the live tracking window. This gives the user the capability to evaluate trades in real-time given the backtested system of entries and exits.
Note:
To properly understand and use this tool, you MUST have a comprehensive understanding of our Market Segment Shifts model, and High Risk Zones + Added Risk Signals model.
Setting up a strategy
Choosing Entries:
For longs, choose between 'Period 1 Bullish' shifts and 'Period 2 Bullish' shifts.
For shorts, choose between 'Period 1 Bearish' shifts and 'Period 2 Bearish' shifts.
Setup Trader Info:
Set leverage (if using none set to 1)
Set position size
Set starting portfolio value
Choosing Exit Mode:
Option for 'Single TP/SL' (exits entire position at once)
Option for 'Multi TP/SL' (provides 3 exits per position)
Choosing Exit Conditions:
Single Exit
For longs, choose between | Fixed % | Added Long Risk | Period 2 Bearish Outlook | Period 2 Bearish | Period 1 Bearish Outlook | Period 1 Bearish |.
For shorts, choose between | Fixed % | Added Short Risk | Period 2 Bullish Outlook | Period 2 Bullish | Period 1 Bullish Outlook | Period 1 Bullish |.
Multiple Exits
All three exits have the same 6 conditions to be chosen from for longs and shorts making 12 different exit conditions total; 6 corresponding to longs and 6 corresponding to shorts.
For longs, choose between | Fixed % | Added Long Risk | Period 2 Bearish Outlook | Period 2 Bearish | Period 1 Bearish Outlook | Period 1 Bearish |
For shorts, choose between | Fixed % | Added Short Risk | Period 2 Bullish Outlook | Period 2 Bullish | Period 1 Bullish Outlook | Period 1 Bullish |.
Setup TP/SL Amounts
Take profit and stop loss amounts only apply to 'Mutli TP/SL'.
First it's important to understand that there are not separate take profit and stop loss conditions, only exit conditions.
This means the following
Upon the chosen exit condition, if the trade is in profit it will be considered a take profit and use the corresponding take profit amount.
Upon the chosen exit condition, if the trade is at a loss, it will be considered a stop loss and use the corresponding stop loss amount.
Regardless of long or short, all three exit conditions must sum up to 100 representing 100% of ones positions size. (ex. Exit 1 = 40, Exit 2 = 40, Exit 3 = 20)
Note:
The Fixed % TP/SL inputs are only to be used if exit condition(s) are set to 'Fixed %', otherwise leave these at zero.
Understanding the strategy
Notes:
Calculations will auto-exit if a flip to the opposite direction occurs. (ex. In a long, short condition occurs, auto-exits long position.)
Grey triangles with red or green text being plotted on the chart represent various exits for longs or shorts. See key below.
Plot Key
| Plot | Meaning |
|---|---|
el (green) | single exit long |
es (red) | single exit short |
el1 (green) | exit 1 taken long |
el2 (green) | exit 2 taken long |
el3 (green) | exit 3 taken long |
el1 (red) | exit 1 taken short |
el2 (red) | exit 2 taken short |
el3 (red) | exit 3 taken short |
rel1 (green) | exited remaining long position when in a long with 0 exits taken and a short entry occurred |
rel2 (green) | exited remaining long position when in a long with 1 exit taken and a short entry occurred |
rel3 (green) | exited remaining long position when in a long with 2 exits taken and a short entry occurred |
rel1 (red) | exited remaining short position when in a short with 0 exits taken and a long entry occurred |
rel2 ( red) | exited remaining short position when in a short with 1 exit taken and a long entry occurred |
rel3 (red) | exited remaining short position when in a short with 2 exits taken and a long entry occurred |
Metrics Explained:
| Metric | Meaning |
|---|---|
P/L $ | Displays the profit or loss in dollars |
ROI % | Displays the return on investment (portfolio) of the backtested period |
Length of Backtest | Displays the length of the backtest in days |
Total Trades | Displays the number of longs and shorts taken during the backtest |
Avg Win : Avg Loss | Displays a ratio representing the size of the average win compared to the size of the average loss of trades taken during the backtest |
Max Drawdown | Displays the lowest amount in dollars the portfolio reached during the backtested period |
Max Run-Up | Displays the highest amount in dollars the portfolio reached during the backtested period |
Risk Level | Displays a quantified level of risk associated with the strategy |
Note:
You will notice accuracy is not given as a metric, this is done on purpose.
It's a common misconception that improving accuracy is the best way to become a profitable trader, this is false.
Generally to improve accuracy in a trading strategy, one must increase stop losses in order to give trades more room to play out; while at the same time minimizing profit targets in order to increase the likelihood of the trade hitting.
Increased risk and decreased reward are the exact opposite of an ideal trading strategy.
Ask yourself this, why mess around with accuracy when you could just go to the source of profitability and optimize your risk and reward?
When someone goes to invest money with a firm or in a fund, are they given an expected accuracy? No, they are given an expected return. The return is based on how much they are winning compared to how much they are losing NOT how often they are winning compared to how often they are losing. This is the key distinction to understand.
It's quality over quantity.
Consider this example
A trader is 30% accurate and has taken 100 trades, 30 of which are winners and 70 are losers. Doesn't sound the best? Well, ignore the accuracy and ask yourself how much did they win on a winning trade and how much did they lose on a losing trade.
Say this trader had a 5:1 risk:reward. Give them a position size of $100 for every trade and no leverage. A Take profit of 5% run-up meaning their stop loss would be at a 1% drawdown since they have a 5:1 risk:reward.
This means for every winning trade they make $5 and for every losing trade they lose $1. With 70 losing trades at $1 each, this means $70 was lost. With 30 winning trades at $5 each, this means $150 was made.
$150-$70 yields a net profit of $80.
This is not at all to say that one should aim for a low accuracy, it's only to highlight the fact that by taking accuracy out of the equation, a trader is not limited to strategies with good accuracy or limited to optimizing strategies based on accuracy. Traders are then able to expand upon and diversify strategies based on profitability and risk.
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